Brexit bets: The most reliable forecast for EU withdrawal
Published by Giselle
June 10, 2019 7:25 am
It is not unusual for bookmakers to have a good feel for current events. Does this also apply to Brexit bets?
When talking about Brexit, the term comes from the fusion of the words Britain and Exit. So the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. The citizens of the country have decided accordingly in an election. And yet the big cut has not yet taken place. Now there is speculation about Britain’s departure. Of course, the British are not willing to let their bets be turned on their country’s future.
Sports betting has a long tradition in England. Nowadays not only sports events, but also events from the categories entertainment and politics are suitable for a bet. Brexit betting may be perceived as immoral by some people, as the future of the EU as a whole is somehow involved. For us, however, the forecast is the most important thing here. What do the bookmakers think the UK’s exit will be like?
Next major Brexit election
On 23 June 2016, the citizens of the United Kingdom voted in favour of leaving the European Union. But so far no agreement has been reached with the EU. And the pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May continues to grow. On the one hand, demos are taking place in the country to provoke a new Brexit referendum. This would put the EU’s withdrawal to the vote again in front of the nation’s citizens. On the other hand, the proposals of the strong woman in Great Britain before the EU have not yet been approved. The bookmakers, therefore, ask when the next major election will take place. There are only two alternatives. Either May rejects the deal or it is accepted. The decision is made by the British House of Commons (The Commons).
But what are the odds? We look at Bookmaker 888. There a further rejection seems to be considered probable. Because the odds on a rejection of May’s proposal are only 1.25. This corresponds to a probability of 80 percent. The fact that May’s deal goes through is less likely, according to the betting providers. Because under the Brexit bets this event receives only a ratio at a value of 3.50. The chance amounts to thereby 28.57 percent. If the bookmaker is right with his prediction, then May’s proposal will again not come through and the EU withdrawal will take even longer.
Brexit bets: Will the EU withdrawal still be prevented after all?
May does not want to back down. The people were in favour of leaving the EU and that is how it should happen. But would another vote lead to the same result? How fickle is the average citizen? And how many did not vote because they did not believe that Britain would leave the EU? Britain could face a supply problem when it leaves the European Union. The financial markets throughout Europe and even worldwide could react negatively. Are we even heading for the next major financial crisis with the Brexit? It is not out of the question. Nor can it be ruled out that the British will somehow manage to remain part of the EU.
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union regulates, among other things, withdrawal: “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”, it says in paragraph 1. And it is precisely the application of this article that could still be revoked by Great Britain. Here too, Brexit bets are in the shop window. The question is whether the withdrawal will take place in 2019. And once again the odds are clearly distributed. “No” is the probable candidate with a quota of 1.25. The “yes” therefore again receives the betting quota of 3.50 and is therefore considered to be incomparably less probable. 888sport also asks when Theresa May will give up her post as Prime Minister. Here, however, the year 2019 only receives a quota of 1.10, while 2020 or later is tendered with a 6.00. So an early resignation is assumed.
Past of bookmaker predictions: Already in earlier votes or elections the betting providers were often right. Sometimes, however, the forecast was wrong, as in the election for the presidency of Donald Trump.
Why are bookmakers, good forecasters?
A betting provider is a company. As such, the pursuit of profit is part of the company philosophy. Assumed for two different results there is in each case the ratio of 1.90. That here with an even distribution of Tipps a margin remains should make sense. But if here again 90 percent of the weather set on the same result and this also occurs, then a loss would be registered.
So the bookmaker has to adjust his odds dynamically. If many people set their odds to Alternative A, the odds are lowered here and increased in return for Variant B. If the odds are lowered here, the odds are lowered here. This keeps the betting behavior balanced. At the same time, the odds drop where many people bet on it. And they rise the other way round, where few people make their crosses. For example, a vote can be predicted who the bookmakers’ odds will keep in mind. With Brexit bets, this is no different.