How the NBA Number One Pick Has Been Decided Since 1947

Published 15 August 2026Features

Understanding how the top pick landed with a specific franchise requires identifying which selection engine was running at that exact moment.

Pre-1966 Local Claims and the Territorial Option

In 1949 and across drafts following the 1950 season, NBA draft rules allowed teams to claim amateur talent before the standard selection order even began. Under the territorial pick rule, a franchise could forfeit its regular first-round draft choice to select a local prospect located within an approximate 50-mile radius of its home market.

The mechanism bypassed competitive standings entirely. A successful team with a winning record could secure an elite college player simply because the athlete attended a university inside that club's designated 50-mile geographic circle.

This structure meant the team with the league's worst record was not guaranteed the top overall player entering the professional ranks. If a rival club exercised its territorial right on a top amateur, that player was off the board before the first round officially opened.

The league operated with territorial provisions until eliminating them during a complete draft revamp in 1966.

Two Conferences, One Coin: The 1966 to 1984 Toss

The 1966 draft stands as a major draft revamp because it removed territorial rights and established a direct coin flip for the top overall pick.

Under this format, the team finishing with the worst record in the Eastern Conference and the team finishing with the worst record in the Western Conference went head-to-head. A single toss of a coin awarded the first pick to the winner and the second pick to the loser. The remaining teams then drafted in reverse order of their regular-season records.

In the 1966 coin flip, the New York Knicks won the toss and used the No. 1 overall pick to draft Cazzie Russell.

The coin-flip rule lasted from 1966 through 1984. Over those 19 drafts, securing the worst record in the entire league offered no greater advantage than simply finishing last in one's own conference. A team with the worst record in professional basketball held exactly a 50 percent chance at the top pick, sharing identical odds with a conference counterpart that may have finished with several more victories.

Envelopes, Hoppers, and Equal Odds in 1985

In 1984, the league voted to alter the selection process by instituting a draft lottery for non-playoff teams, beginning with the 1985 draft.

The original 1985 and 1986 lottery format dismantled the direct connection between regular-season losses and draft order. All non-playoff participants entered the lottery with identical mathematical odds.

The league placed team-identified envelopes inside a rotating hopper. An official drew the envelopes one by one to set the top positions, giving every non-playoff club an equal chance at the No. 1 selection. The team with the worst record had the same mathematical shot at the top pick as a team that missed the postseason by a single game.

In 1987, the league modified the system so the lottery determined only the first three draft positions. Once those three slots were drawn from the hopper, the remaining non-playoff franchises were ordered by inverse win-loss record.

Weighting Odds and the Ping-Pong Era After 1990

The flat-odds envelope model was replaced in 1990, when the league introduced a weighted lottery system.

Under the 1990 structure, odds were distributed according to regular-season performance rather than equal distribution. The team with the league's worst record received 11 chances out of 66 total combinations. That gave the bottom club a 16.67 percent mathematical probability of landing the No. 1 selection, with decreasing combinations assigned to the teams above it.

In October 1993, the league adopted a 14-ping-pong-ball machine to draw the combinations that determined the order.

The lottery continued to assign only the first three selections through 2018. Following the 2018 draft, the format expanded so the lottery draw determined the first four overall picks before the remaining non-playoff teams slotted into reverse-record order.

Why Cross-Era Comparisons Break Down

Evaluating the history of the top pick requires separating distinct competitive frameworks:

• In 1949 and post-1950 drafts, teams forfeited their first-round pick to take local players within a 50-mile radius before normal drafting began.
• From 1966 through 1984, the two worst conference teams competed in a 50-50 coin flip, beginning with New York's selection of Cazzie Russell.
• In 1985 and 1986, all non-playoff teams held equal odds in an envelope-and-hopper drawing.
• In 1987, the envelope draw was limited to assigning the top three picks.
• In 1990, the league weighted the odds, granting the worst team 11 of 66 combinations (16.67 percent).
• In October 1993, the league implemented the 14-ping-pong-ball system.
• After 2018, the lottery expanded from assigning three picks to determining the top four.

Because these mechanics governed different drafts, the first overall pick has represented entirely different odds, rules, and territorial claims depending on the year it was awarded.